Politics, like University of California administration, seems dominated by two personality archetypes; the bright-eyed, excitable newcomers eager to make a difference (usually students trying to get facilities or funding for student groups) and system-weary, jaded or cynical administrative types whose principle preoccupation is the survival of office politics. The fireworks that ensue from the collision of these two personality types usually results in more of the second – often by converting the first into the second. And state or national politics, at least to my armchair-borne, oversimplified perspective, bears a lot of resemblance to that psychological progression.

But this year seems different. It’s hard for me to gauge exactly how popular president-elect Obama really is, living as I do in California. By electoral votes, the election was a landslide, but I’ve read that the popular vote was much closer – something on the order of a 52%/46% split. But you wouldn’t think so, to judge by appearances these few months later. Maybe it’s the ‘liberal bias’ of CNN reporting, but Obama’s impending inauguration carries such a positive tone, such a swelling of hope, even despite – or perhaps even in reaction to – the glum tone set by the national economy and the war in Iraq. Maybe it’s just the simple hope that a new administration – any new administration – would be an improvement over the previous one, punctuated by so many dismal and obvious catastrophes and apparent errors in oversight or judgment. Whatever the reason, it’s truly refreshing to see this much optimism, this much anticipation, this much apparent faith that the new administration has some hope of making things right. Certainly, Obama and his team has an aura of capability that stands in contravention to the picture of leadership we’ve become accustomed to these past two terms: self-interested executives, faithless, incompetent management, bungled regulatory oversight, lavish earmarks and stultifyingly blatant pork, ill-informed decisions, preposterous ineloquence, insouciant arrogance, stubborn denial, wanton hypocrisy, and corruption so commonplace it’s taken as par for the course. I don’t know how much truth there is to the current image of Obama’s nascent administration: technological savvy, meritocracy over nepotism, vitality, circumspection, and a masterful appeal to symbolism in the form of tributes to Lincoln and King – but I hope it’s all true. The cynic and the jaded realist have both had the helm for long enough, so long that the weariness of being have settled so deeply into the daily routine that for years there’s been little joy left in work, little pride left in being American. If you had asked me a year ago, whether I thought this country could elect anyone but a white man to the highest office in the land, I would have answered “probably not,” citing the embarrassment of the don’t-ask, don’t-tell racism that lurks behind the politically polite veneer of correctness that has pasted itself over the national psyche as a stand-in for real conscience. I’m so glad to have been proven wrong here.

In watching the inaugural ceremony, though, it’s clear from many perspectives, from the words of the commentators to the visuals of the crowds on the National Mall that this one transcends politics. Anchors, commentators, observers, and average people on the street all seem to be in agreement: this inauguration is a moment of social significance, of cultural significance. That it has made history goes without saying, but it is much more than a moment in time. The sense that everyone seems to feel – that sense that I dare to let myself feel – is that things will never be the same, and that voices unheard until now are being raised not just in triumph, but in goodwill. The view on the Mall is of a pastiche the likes of which I’ve never seen on-camera at a political event. Young mixed with old, faces of many colors – Obama will be the face of the United States abroad and that in itself is a change. But the picture of the Mall seems already to speak to the rhetoric in the president-elect’s speeches and addresses – the face of America, sampled imperfectly across the fortunate (if freezing) two million people who have gathered on the mall – has changed. He made this happen. It’s extraordinary.

Charisma and goodwill. For all his work at expanding the power of the executive branch, dubya has never at any point in his presidency had these two great forces behind him like this, even in the days immediately following 9/11 when solidarity and sympathy together opened a window of opportunity for a fractious nation to come together. It’s possible that charisma and goodwill are a president’s greatest potential powers even though they stand outside any official capacity granted to the office by the laws of the land. The president himself (or someday, herself) is a symbol, after all; of course we have three branches of government. Of course there are nine judges on the supreme court, a hundred senators, 435 representatives, and of course the executive branch is not one man, but rather composed of the president’s cabinet and administrators. Of course our federal system is designed with attention to the concept of checks and balances – this doesn’t change the fact that we are visual creatures and that visual symbols hold more than their share of power. When you think of the face of the federal government, it is the face and figure of the president that comes first to mind, in any age. Charisma and goodwill is useful politically, of course, but it matters outside the halls of government. It makes a difference in everyday life.

I’ve listened to commentators delivering the reality check – that the president alone has only so much power. It’s been said that the Fed and its monetary policy, even with the power to print money and set the interest rate, is effectively tasked with changing the tide armed with little more than a fancy bucket. The president can introduce legislation but still needs Congress to pass it. The limits of the presidency are built into the Constitution and its amendments. But that still doesn’t change the fact that the president, more than anyone else, is the face of our government. I think that’s why having rapport with the people can make for a more effective president. If real policy is good medicine or bad medicine, rapport is the placebo effect – subjective, filled with potential, apparently based on nothing ‘real,’ and unpredictably effective.

We all have enough to worry about in an average day. Most people do not go out of their way to do something new unless they are moved by something. Powerful desire. Oppressive boredom. Great fear or terror. Deep idealism. I think that’s from where arises the adage, “things will get worse before they get better.” If something is bothering you but you can make it go away temporarily by complaining about it and letting it go, then you probably will. It’s only after something becomes intolerable that many would be moved to get up and finally do something about it. For all the positivism and optimism that now surrounds the inauguration, I remember that during the election itself there were a lot of people who resolved to vote in the next election because they believed that they could not bear just letting “it,” whatever it was, to happen again without at least making a statement. For better or worse, whether by circumstance, inaction, or choice, that’s the way we are. It’s a cultural force – it’s also an economic force. Consumer behavior is driven by mood and emotion, after all. For all the planning and bookkeeping we do, our spending behavior is not a process driven by rationalism. Even the most rational people are still moved by their emotions, whether they admit it or not. Depressions involve so many feedback effects that they can become self-fulfilling prophecies; people expecting hard times will, within their capacity, save more for rainy days and spend less in the present. A rapidly growing economy is driven by steady, healthy spending of the sort that can look reckless to people whose decisions are dominated by concern about retirement. Anyone who’s taken even the most elementary course in macroeconomics would be able to tell you that expectations in consumer behavior drive supply and demand, so the psychological and emotional expectation of hard times or good times usually result in concomitant crashes or booms in the economy – the part of everyday life that everyone cares about whether they’re politically passionate or disinterested. The president’s rapport with the people – reflected not just in his (or her) policies, photo opportunities, and public addresses, but also in their feelings toward him. I think our new president has – at this moment – suffused the climate with hope and goodwill, and the press has certainly taken note of the outpouring and swelling of joy and support among the people. Obama is noted to have said on his train ride to the Capitol, “I love you too.” The days leading up to the inauguration itself have been festive and so filled with affection that I can’t imagine how many times he must have heard the same coming from the unprecedented crowds gathered to show their support for him, and I can only hope that the optimism feeds back and stays strong through his term. Certainly we’ll need it. There are so many ills plaguing the country at the moment, the patient may not care whether the medicine is real or it’s just the placebo effect that works the cure. In the end, what’s the difference?
It’s an odd thing, but I think there’s no denying its potential. It’s more than just the ‘power of positive thinking,’ it’s the power of positive feeling, that moves the heart and not just the mind. That’s the power of leadership. My blessings to our new president – I hope he uses it well.